Silver Surges 2.6%: Critical Minerals Status Sparks Rally; Key Levels for MCX

Silver is making a significant 2.57% move today, defying a strengthening dollar to trade at $62.94. The white metal has decoupled from traditional currency correlations, driven by a massive structural shift in industrial policy. For MCX traders, the estimated price is holding firm around ₹205,244, signaling a high-volatility session ahead.

⚡ The Catalyst

The primary trigger for today’s aggressive rally is the inclusion of Silver on the US Critical Minerals List, a move that has fundamentally repriced the metal’s supply risk premium. This policy shift, confirmed late last week, acknowledges the deepening supply deficit driven by the solar photovoltaic (PV) sector, which has seen demand grow by over 15% in 2025 alone.

Market sentiment is further fueled by the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut to the 3.50-3.75% range, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, the “Critical Mineral” designation is the true game-changer, sparking fears of export restrictions and prompting aggressive stockpiling by major industrial players. This has created a squeeze on physical inventory, overriding the headwinds usually caused by a stronger US Dollar.

📊 Technical Levels

Price action is currently testing the upper bounds of the weekly range. A sustained break above the immediate resistance could open the door to all-time highs.

Level	Price	Significance
Immediate Resistance	$63.93	Week High; key breakout point for momentum renewal.
Immediate Support	$62.00	Psychological floor; previous breakout zone.
Key Resistance	$65.50	Major historical pivot; target for algorithmic buying.
Key Support	$57.62	Week Low; critical trend invalidation level.

💵 Dollar Impact

Typically, a rising Dollar Index (DXY), which is up +0.34% today, would pressure commodities. However, Silver’s +2.57% surge indicates a massive correlation breakdown. The metal is trading purely on industrial scarcity and safe-haven demand rather than currency arbitrage. While Gold is also bullish (+1.40%), Silver’s “beta” is significantly higher, confirming that the move is driven by specific silver-market tightness rather than just broad precious metal flows.

🎯 MCX Outlook

For MCX traders, the trend is Strongly Bullish. The disconnect from USD weakness suggests that dips are being aggressively bought.

• Strategy: Look for entries near ₹202,500 - ₹203,000 (intraday dips).
• Target: A retest of the week high implies a move toward ₹208,000.
• Caution: Volatility is extreme; ensure stops are placed below ₹198,000 to manage downside risk in case of a profit-taking flush.